Looking ahead to RWC 2011 - 2 years and counting down (PART I)
Posted by | Posted in All Blacks, Rugby Debates, Tri-Nations, World Cup | Posted on 23-09-2009
Two years ago, the All Blacks were a dominant force, once again the smart money was on them to take the RWC until France, once again, trounced their hopes in the quarters, leaving the Boks the last team standing with the golden cup. 2 years down the line, the tide has changed. After a rocky 2008 for the Boks in general, wooden spoon for the Bulls in the S14 and for the Boks in the Trinations, they’ve followed that up with a commanding performance in 2009, taking every piece of silverware available to them, bar possibley the ‘home nations’ title, which surely they’d have taken had it been for the offering on the end of year tour.
Looking ahead to 2011 after the current Trinations tournament where the currently ranked top 3 teams do battle, it seems more than likely that the Boks are in the driving seat and, on current form, look like the All Blacks during non-RWC years. The Boks will be hoping that they can continue to improve and this form doesnt dip. PDV will be the architect of their own demise as i feel they have the players to take the golden cup once again, even in the All Blacks back garden.
While reading a New Zealand website i came across some analysis of the All Blacks and their current choices for players in 2011, which i thought would be good if we could do an analysis of all Trinations teams and see where we end up. we’ll start with what they’ve gone with, and then having to make our own way with the Bok and Aussie teams respectively following a similar format as below:
http://www.nzrugbyworld.co.nz/Article.aspx?id=423
Here is what the All Blacks currently have at their disposal for the 2011 RWC:
Fullbacks
Mils Muliaina
We know he’s world class. But his form has dipped in recent weeks. Is it temporary or a sign he’s losing it? The smart money is on the former.
Verdict: Needs to rediscover his best form but should still be in the side come 2011.
Cory Jane
Has enjoyed a good season and looks capable. But will that be enough? Has he got a touch of magic? Is he quick enough to beat people and score tries?
Verdict: Will always be of interest but must hope someone more explosive doesn’t come along.
Israel Dagg
Has the skills and power to become a test fullback. His kicking game is much improved as is his defence. He can hit the line well and there is a good chance he will have forced his way into the squad by next year.
Verdict: Could really put the pressure on Muliaina by 2011.
Wings
Sitiveni Sivivatu
Remains the best attacking wing in the country and one of the few who can still genuinely surprise. That’s worth a premium and he shows no sign of slowing down or losing his nerve.
Verdict: Pencil him in.
Joe Rokocoko
Forget about big Joe. His form has been poor and his skills are no longer suited to the modern game where wings spend most of the game under the high ball and punting it back.
Verdict: Doubtful that he will still be in the picture come 2011.
Rudi Wulf
Was selected in the original squad until injury ruled him out. He is an accurate player who copes well with the high ball and can kick. These are skills that would allow him to partner Sivivatu.
Verdict: A conservative choice but the squad will need a safe option.
Lelia Masaga
Was called up for the June tests but was quiet on debut. He has gas and can be brilliant. Needs to prove he has the temperament for the big occasion.
Verdict: He’s certainly exciting but needs polish to be in contention.
Zac Guildford
Has a neat all-round game and is well-suited to the current rules. Was a little quiet this season but young enough to learn from that and mature nicely in time for 2011.
Verdict: Quality player but 2015 might be his tournament.
Hosea Gear
Has the running power but looked a little lost when he started in Hong Kong. If he can tighten his defensive work then he has a compelling attacking game to push his claim.
Verdict: In the mix but might need to offer something more.
Centres
Conrad Smith:
Is playing better than he ever has and seems to get better with age. By 2011 he’ll be 28 and may well be at the peak of his craft.
Verdict: A Banker
Richard Kahui
Is a young man with the potential to be an All Black great. He’s strong, fast and brave and in possession of a good rugby brain. Will be 26 in 2011 and bursting to make an impact.
Verdict: If he avoids injury – he’ll be there.
Robert Fruean
The Hurricanes back is a hot prospect who we will see some more of next year. He was a star of the age-grade circuit and was deemed good enough for the Junior All Blacks this year on limited football.
Verdict: Keep a very close eye on this kid.
Second Fives
Ma’a Nonu:
At 27, he should still be in good shape by the next World Cup and offers a skill-set that will always be in demand.
Verdict: Needs to return to more compelling form if he wants to go.
Luke McAlister:
Is currently viewed, in the absence of Carter, a 10 who can play. Once Carter is fully fit, McAlister will revert to being a 12 who can play 10. And he can play. When he gets some more football behind him we will be reminded of that.
Verdict: A certainty to make it, that’s why he came back to New Zealand.
Ryan Crotty:
This young man has the energy and fast feet. What he lacks is the composure to stand as a first receiver. If he can develop a better kicking game and learn to direct play more, he could be very close to ousting Nonu.
Verdict: Will be very close.
First Fives
Stephen Donald:
Will stay on the fringe of the squad but he’ll be vulnerable between now and the World Cup. He’s coped in the last few tests, but remains a knife-edge player who doesn’t breed confidence. Looks more and more like a player chosen by default.
Verdict: Will be lucky to make it.
Daniel Carter:
We don’t really need to say much here do we?
Verdict: Safe
Aaron Cruden:
Looks to have all that he needs and is in the midst of a good NPC campaign. Could be taken on tour later this year to indoctrinate him into the ways of the squad.
Verdict: Very good chance to push himself in there.
Utility Backs
Isaia Toeava
Loved by the current panel but has failed to impress whenever he has started. Looks better at fullback but needs to deliver some quality performances.
Verdict: Has support from panel but there are better options.
Colin Slade
Canterbury coach Rob Penney said he felt Slade could be a world class fullback and would be a great asset in a World Cup 30. He’s right.
Verdict: A goal-kicking utility – yes please.
Stephen Brett
Impressed the All Blacks when he came into camp with them before the Tri Nations. But still looks defensively frail and prone to silly mistakes but he excites and can do things some of his peers can’t.
Verdict: Has to move franchise. Has to tidy up game and improve defence. Probably never going to quite convince.
Robbie Robinson: He could be deadly at fullback and he could handle himself at second five, too. Or fullback. This kid has skill and raw pace that enabled him to scorch over the first 10 metres. If he can handle himself physically at the higher level - and we’ll find out next year when he plays Super 14 - he’s going to be of great interest to the All Blacks.
Verdict: Robinson could be the All Blacks’ wild card - the electric player who gives them something a little different.
Halfback
Jimmy Cowan
He’s always going to be the sort of bloke you want around - well at least as long as he keeps his personal demons in check.
Verdict: Safe.
Piri Weepu
Has become wedded to the All Black bench which makes him vulnerable when Carter returns and cover for first five is no longer an issue.
Verdict: Vulnerable.
Brendon Leonard
Was played before he was match fit which resulted in him playing badly. But he’s a sharp runner and offers something a bit different.
Verdict: Safe
Loose Forwards
Rodney So’oialo
Starting to look tired. His rest hasn’t revived him and without his energy, he’s not really cutting it.
Verdict: Unlikely to make it.
Kieran Read
Could well be the established No 8 by then. The boot of the scrum is starting to look more like his natural position and he’s starting to look more and more like an All Black.
Verdict: Safe
Richie McCaw: See Carter.
Verdict: Safe
Jerome Kaino
Has had some good performances this season but still struggles for consistency. Does he do enough and is he the enforcer he thinks he is?
Verdict: On the edge - needs to show he can play well for longer periods.
Adam Thomson
Has the speed and mobility. Has the aggression and technique and showed he also has the application. Needs to add some accuracy but that could come with more game time.
Verdict: Would be a surprise to see him miss out.
Tanerau Latimer
Hasn’t had much opportunity but looks a bit like Donald - a good Super 14 player covering while there is an injury crises.
Verdict: He’s a long shot.
George Whitelock
Has his admirers and can clearly play. Has the problem of being at the Crusaders where McCaw blocks his path. Needs more game time to advance his claim and show just how good he could be.
Verdict: With game-time he’ll come into the reckoning.
Victor Vito
The Hurricanes loose forward is a potential world class operator. Big, strong and very fast he’s also got some nice skills. If he can progress in the Super 14 next year, he’s going to be an All Black and potentially a very good one.
Verdict: Stick some money on him being there.
Liam Messam
Was dumped hard this year and told he loses games. It was harsh and Messam has the character to bounce back and show that he can also win games, too.
Verdict: If the selectors can swallow their pride - they might see Messam for what he really is and pick him.
Locks
Ali Williams
As long as he recovers well from his injuries there is every reason to believe Williams can be around for some time yet.
Verdict: Likely to be the senior lock guaranteed his place.
Brad Thorn
Forget his age – Thorn is fit and has looked after himself. Might be more of a squad man by 2011 but won’t give up his jersey without a fight.
Verdict: Not guaranteed but has a good chance.
Anthony Boric
He was the find of last season and the selectors believe he can mature into a payer like Thorn.
Verdict: Has a lot of support. Needs to develop as promised to be safe.
This young man is clearly the future. By 2011 he’ll be physically tougher and that bit wiser.
Verdict: Likely to be an All Black starter.
Bryn Evans
Clearly there is something about this young man of great interest. A big season with the Hurricanes in 2010 and he’s going to be putting pressure on more established names.
Verdict: Another player who has to be closely followed.
Jason Eaton
We all know how much promise he once had – but there is a danger that the injury he incurred in 2007 is going to prevent him from fulfilling it.
Verdict: Might need to switch to the blindside full-time and aim to be the utility forward.
Props
Carl Hayman: When he comes back – he’s the main man.
Verdict: Going to be there.
John Afoa
Aggressive ball runner and good mobility. His scrum work needs attention but will benefit from returning to a dual role of working both sides.
Verdict: Could be the new Greg Somerville – a bench option for his ability to cover both sides.
Owen Franks
Has been one of the few bright spots this season. At just 21 he’s got a massive future.
Verdict: He’ll be in the 2011 squad but his big impact will be in 2015.
Neemia Tialata
Likely to be squeezed out by younger, more mobile players.
Verdict: Probably not going to be wanted.
Tony Woodcock
We all know what Woodcock can do and needs his old pal Hayman back alongside him to free him up.
Verdict: Needs to sharpen his form but he’ll be there.
Wyatt Crockett
He’s a big unit but another who is there more by default more by merit. If he can win game time then we can reassess.
Verdict: There is a long queue and he’s not near enough to the front.
Hookers
Andrew Hore
Not in the best form, but that is surely a blip. He’s a good player and there is plenty of football left in him.
Verdict: Safe.
Keven Mealamu
Hasn’t made the impact he would like in every game but clearly has power and courage. The only doubt is his body – as in how well it holds up.
Verdict: Someone will really have to advance to keep him out.
Aled de Malmanche
This bloke has bulk and great energy. He’s a bit ropey on the throwing in but that can be fixed.
Verdict: Might be putting real pressure on more senior colleagues by then.
Hika Elliot
There is mobility and pace to his game as well as accuracy. Needs to find regular game time somewhere though.
Verdict: He’s a long way back now – but anything is possible.
Any additional players/comments? is this team going to be strong enough to challenge the Boks or the Aussies? or the French or English should those sides turn up in 2011?
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I am noticing a few “safe”’s BP. Trouble in paradise? Indicative of the current AB performance is it not? I am excited about 2011. Another RWC, but BP a lot can happen in 2 years time. I am not even sure if we should be thinking about the possible teams now.
Anyway Cater and McCaw would be selected in 2015 if possible. I just think reputation might just be the undoing of most teams. With the exodus of players leaving for Europe, it’s difficult to replace good players and therefore coaches are forced to stick with players with good reputation. The loose forwards mentioned above only two are safe. McCaw was included based on reputation more than anything. His current form has not lit my imagination by a long shot. Then again he is Richie McCaw. Cater is another man whose status is of a “Rugby god” in New Zealand. Once heard someone say even if Muralidaran was on a wheel chair they would allow him to bowl for Sri Lanka. Don’t get me wrong BP but I feel these two needs to up their socks just like the other hopefuls to enable the Abs win the title in 2011. We are only concerned about the team to represent the hosts so let me not get carried away. Joe is a little slow yes, so may be its time to let him go. But Henry might get him on the plane to Hong Kong and Europe so let’s not rule him out just as yet. Conrad Smith is a fighter, regardless which jersey he puts on I think this guy is another reason why the AB have struggled recently. Donald has to be included. With injuries and other physical requirements you need to support Cater with an experience lad. I don’t see anyone else to wear the number 10 jersey. It’s the Hookers that surprise me here, Hore and Mealamu are the only two real contenders here.
Word is Nick Evans, Aaron Mauger and Doug Howlett could be in the mix as well.
really? havent heard those rumors re evans, mauger and howlett, definitely complete players so will be interesting.
while we’re still 2 years out, i think its not a bad idea to judge where teams are, this is a crucial stage of preparations, teams need to have started building towards the tournament as time is limited.
i dont think donald will be in the mix, he’s shown he cant handle the pressure and i think that mcalister will be carters deputy, or someone else along the lines of colin slade.
mccaw is lacking any serious backup and i feel joe might be playing his last few games come year end. i’d use these games to blood other players such as masaga and co to at least give them some time to gel into the team and jersey.
i rate kahui as one of the best centres last year, its a pity he got injured and been ruled out most of this season. he’s a fine player to be up there with the best
victor vito has the potential to rule the flanks mate, he has everything needed from his 7s experience and can definitely opperate along side mccaw, but not replace him
what the ABs also need to work on is choosing their next incumbant skipper. i have a feeling kieren reid might be primed for this job. he’s shown character at the back of the scrum and i see good thigns coming from him
ABs should bring back anton oliver from oxford for the RWC, they’re short on anything decent. im surprised Dane Coles of the hurricanes wasnt mentioned, im a big fan but he’s too light in the frtont row i think
boks and wallabies can be discussed in the next 2 parts
I don’t think its a bad idea to look ahead. just think by then most teams would have chopped and changed. its nice to have players who can play more than one position. I am referring to luke, frans, dan and schalk. surely there are more. henry would love to have his best 15 whom he will keep throughout the tourney…. surely this time anyway. ideally next year’s try nations would indicate the crux of team. should dan be injured would u start luke @ 10. provided all other positions are covered.
Gotta agree with BP on the Luke to replace carter issue, as much as donald impressed with the chiefs he was exploited in the black jersey, and I believe if it were to come down to a game with him in the 10 jumper other teams would remember those cracks and throw everything at him to try and reveal and exploit those.
Luke is def more confident and think is the only true back-up in NZ right now.
By the looks of the rest of the line-up, the potential is there fo sure, but it is going to be pedal to the metal for the coaches to find the right combinations and fast because the right combinations may very well be brand new, especially in the back line and these will need to get some proper game time in to make sure they are up to the task.
but if they get this tightrope walk right the ABs could be fielding a dangerous and enerjetic new team come 2011.
i like your wording fraz!
there are some good players coming through, but as you say, there is little time for new combos/players to be tested, think by next trinations there needs to be a definitive idea of who they’ll be playing in the RWC, and stick to those players unless injuries force his hand.
there’s potential, but maybe a little too late in the game to bear the fruit of it, they might have to wait til 2015 wherever that may be
small article on aaron cruden:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10599123
looks like one to watch out for and a great deputy for carter!
I have not seen him. but sounds good
Cruden is the reigning U20/21 world player of the year. He is a tremendous talent bt he’s under a lot of pressure. How he reacts to the pressure n how he plays in S14 will be key.i think he’l play for the canes or hi’landers. Ive seen Colin Slade excel at air newzealand cup n S14. He is the geniuine article. I think fullback cud be pozi. Im nt a fan of Israel Dagg he doesnt do anything that stands out bt ive been surprised before. I think luke shudnt play 10. Personally i think he’s 12. Either mauger shud come back n be a backup 10 or one of the kids shud be.
If New Zealand can adapt to the pressure that was exerted to them by South Africa they can turn things around. Last week’s performance wasn’t spectacular but at least they played with some accuracy. I think once some of the injured players come back there will definitely be some consistency and the ABs can return to trying the things they have wanted to do. There have been postives this season. We have seen who can play and who can’t play and who needs to develop.
Since Henry isn’t going any where anytime soon. I hope he gains the foresight to let certain players go and begin to infuse more youngsters into the AB set up. I think it could be shame if every single player that went overseas walks back into AB camp. There is still some considerable talent coming through in NZ.
The funny thing about the world cup is that its a toss up. Before the 07 RWC, the boks were smacked around by the W, 49-0 and given some hidings by the ABs and Ireland in 06 but they still won it. 98 the W were under new management and a new system and still won it.
To win the RWC or anything, you some things to go your way during the tourney and thus today the Boks are the favourites (rightly so). Anything can happen come the world cup and there shouldn’t be too much doom and gloom.
I honestly do not think the All Blacks have any issues regarding talent and depth people. For me, the most talented youngster at the moment has to be Colin Slade. He can play flyhalf, center, wing and fullback. He is the truth and I would love to see him get a run at Fullback for the Crusaders in the 2010 S14. Another name I rate very much is Victor Vito. That chap is a very good player to have as McCaw’s understudy. These are the 2 names that stand out for me. The All Balcks also have plenty to smile aboyut considering that Ali Williams is on his way back. With 2 years to go, Aus have a lot of work to do but the All Blacks could very well be in the best position. They are good enough to be a real threat at home and away but they still have some problmes here and there. Come 2011 they could just be the team to beat.
With you guru, Slade is the man! With DC back and Mcdonald off to Japan. The 15 jersey will be his in S14. Vito has got talent but i see him as a 6 as opposed to 7.
The good thing about the failures of this year is that the coaches and players will have a good look at themselves and try to improve. I think problem previously with the ABs is that everything was all good in between RWCs and their character was hardly tested. Then came the crunch games in RWC and they found it hard to adapt. Thats one of the reasons england and boks won the last world cups. They had the will power and character to close out tight games.
Hopefully, these experiences will build character. Along with talent, strategy, good or bad reffing good teams need intangibles like character.
i agree with ultimate, its good that the ABs are finding these hardships now between world cups rather than at the tournament. hopefully it’ll put them in good stead come 2011.
not sure about slade yet, havent seen enough of him to comment altho i know he was decent in this years s14 for the saders. hopefully he gets more time in the jersey next s14 and gets the chance to go on the end of year tour, think that’d do him a lot of good
I am curious to understand this All Blacks struggle between the World Cups. All Blacks went into every World Cup as run away favorites. May be with exception to 2003 were the English were dominant. Until the last game they played in those World Cups people are starting to call it a slump. In some World Cup years it would appear that the All Blacks would have lost the same number or lesser games than the other years in between the World Cups. History will show that since 1990 New Zealand has lost at least a game every year with exception to 1997. Now this is what confuses the hell out of me. Since 1990 New Zealand are loosing 2.15 matches per year (43 games in 20 years). Look at the number of losses in the World Cup Years since then;
1995 – 2;
1999 – 3 (Including the 3rd and 4th play off game vs South Africa);
2003 – 2;
2007 – 2;
Unless there is something wrong with my arithmetic this looks like a normal year for New Zealand. The game against South Africa in 1999 was a dead rubber for me, nonetheless it’s a test match, I think.
Here is a startling statistic. Only in 5 years out of 20 did New Zealand loose 1 game or less. Of the 5, only once did the finish the year unbeaten (2007). Even if the remaining 4 years were the world cup years, the chances are those lose would have occurred during the world cup itself. Meaning they might have not won the World Cup anyway. So gentlemen I don’t buy these story regarding peaking in between the world cups. More especially with 1998 (5) and 2009 (4*) evident enough that this team DOES NOT peak in between the World Cups.
* = and counting.
sorry guys i missed 1991 would cup. nonetheless the All Blacks lost only twice that year against the Aussies on both occasions. Normal year once again
i think its more the case that they dont ever seem to win crunch games. the games they’ve lost during those seasons you mention are sort of expected, they’ve never been under the pressure and won. while they’ve been favourites for most of the RWC’s based on previous form etc, they cant seem to front up. this year however, they’re not favourites and have to actually work to get back the form we’re used to and the support they’ve lost. creating these pressure situations for the ABs can hopefully put them in good stead for the next RWC as most of these players should be around, bar a few.