The All Blacks are a bit unsettled up front with Owen Franks coming in for the injured Neemia Tialata. I personally would have brought in the more experienced John Afoa in such a big and must win test for the Blacks. While Franks held his own in the Crusaders jumper, we all know that the Bok front row is very solid and the Lions’ Phil Vickery will testify. I believe Beast will relish facing Franks rather than Afoa any day so I see a weakness there. The second rows see no changes and as with last week, Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha will prove too good and too smart. I am sure the All Blacks will be working on their lineout so we might see some slight improvement there but the Bok locks are just the best lock pairing in the world today.
At the moment, the All Black Loose trio is much better on paper than on grass but with Richie McCaw, one can never write them off. I still see a huge contest at the break down but unfortunately we all know that one player cannot carry a whole team. Heinrich Brussouw is at the top of his game and I am sure he will go toe to toe with the All Black loosies. Number 9 is where I believe the boks have the greatest advantage. With the way Graham Henry has chopped and changed his scrummies, I see Fourie Du Preez being head and shoulders above Jimmy Cowan. While Morne Steyn gets his first start, his Bulls combination with Du Preez and Spies at the 8-9-10 axis should give him all the confidence in the world. Not forgetting that he also has Brian Habana at 11. These familiar faces around him should assist him with his overall play. On the other hand, Steven Donald has had the good fortune of a coach that believes in him, albeit due to lack of depth at number 10 in NZ, and he should have a decent game.
The rest of the backline lineup makes for some interesting tussles. De Villiers and Fourie vs Nonu and Smith will be a key match up and based on current form, the boks have a slight edge there. The back 3 for both teams all have vast experience and ability to turn a game around. However, I believe they will not have much say over who wins the game. For me the secret lies in the battle up front between numbers 1 to 5 and the key 8-9-10 combinations where I believe the boks have the edge. I do not think we will see too many unforced substitutions before the 70th minute so the benches should not have much of an impact on the result.
Springboks – 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morne Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brussow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Andries Bekker, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Adi Jacobs, 22 Wynand Olivier.
All Blacks — 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Subs: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Cory Jane.
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9 comments
Kambas says:
Jul 30, 2009
The weather will also dictate what happens as they are predicting wet weather all weekend. so game plans might change. NZ were leaning towards keeping ball in hand but am not sure how thats going to play out, plus the ABs have had more wet weather games than the boks this season, what with the france and italy games as well as the australian games being played in the wet.
The boks haven’t played in wet weather for sometime now and their history at sea level is also against them . so i’m not sure how its going to play out.
Fraz says:
Jul 30, 2009
Bok supporters fear not!!
Fraz will be there in the flesh and will risk life and limb to stop any break away tries by sprinting on and making neck high tackles!!
Also I am available as super sub and secret weapon for the last ten if things are tight!!!
Guru says:
Jul 30, 2009
LOL, enjoy it Fraz…..I envy you bro.
Ron says:
Jul 30, 2009
hahahahahah Fraz!!! Go you good thing!!!!
If it does rain, i can be sure that the All Blacks will walk away with this one. Kambas raised a valid point that the Boks have not played in rain this season.
Another things, which Manny raised this week; if Morne gets injured somehow in the first minute that will mean Frans will be 10 and we all know what a disaster that would be. JP would then go to 15 and maybe Olivier on the wing.
I hope the Boks have been running with all these changes in practise coz there is a possibility the Boks could target Morne and one big hit could be all it takes!!!
Guru says:
Jul 30, 2009
People, I think you are clutching at straws here. Rain would mean that play becomes tighter and less open running rugby. If one looks at the All Blacks, their strength basically lies in positions 12-15 where they have gas and flair out wide. The last thing the AB’s need is rain. Rain would mean that the game closes down and forwards would dominate phase play. If anything, I think wet conditi0ons would suit the boks perfectly. Then they would just resot to typical 10 men rugby where the forwards grind it up ( and last week we saw the boks use the rolling maul effectively) and then the up and under is launched or the kick into space. When you look at the tactical kickers, the boks have Fourie Du Preez, Morne Steyn, Jean, Brian Habana and Frans Steyn, all who could be used in wet conditions. On the other hand, New Zealand only has Jimmy Cowan, Steven Donald and Milse. If anything, I’d say the All Blacks’s chances are reduced in wet conditions. If the boks play to their capacity, the All Blacks stand no chance.
Kambas says:
Jul 31, 2009
This Dan retief’s latest column on http://www.supersport.co.za
Boks need a game of two halves
by Dan Retief | 30 July 2009 (21:25)
If the Springboks are to register a rare back-to-back victory over the All Blacks in Durban they will have to live up to one of the great sports commentators’ chestnuts and play a game of two halves at the Absa Stadium.
The Boks have not recorded successive home wins over the All Blacks since 1976 and what better time to do it than in John Smit’s record-setting Test as an international captain and Jean de Villiers and Bryan Habana’s 50th?
But to accomplish that, and also place and arm-lock on the Tri-Nations, the Boks will have to eradicate a second-half fade-out that has been evident in three of the four Tests they have played this year.
In the three matches against the Lions plus their Tri-Nations opener against the All Blacks the Boks have accumulated a record that shows that (on average) they ‘won’ the first half 12-10 and ‘lost’ the second 11-13.
The average scores are skewed by the lop-sided 9-28 defeat by the Lions in the third test at Coca-Cola Park but the fact is that in the first and third Lions tests as well as against the All Blacks the Boks were shaded in the second half.
The only Test in which the Boks performed strongly in the second half was in their series-clinching 28-25 victory over the Lions in the second Test at Loftus when they struck back from being 8-16 down at the break and scored 20 points to nine in the second half.
However the pattern of this Test was disturbed by the fact that Schalk Burger was yellow-carded in the 30th second. Burger’s dismissal, in his 50th Test, impacted on the Boks’ performance and they managed to fight back and clinch it late in the match – but you would have to be a fool not to concede that Jaque Fourie’s astounding late try could as easily have been disallowed and that it required a halfway line penalty by Morné Steyn (incidentally in the 54th minute of elapsed time in the second half) to clinch the win and with it the series.
There is little doubt that the Boks have an Achilles Heel and that is a fade-out in the third quarter of matches. There are numerous reasons for this – a lack of fitness?, injudicious substitutions, over-confidence, desperation on the part of opponents – but the fact is Smit and his men have allowed the intensity to dissipate and if they do the same against the ABs in Durban they will not again get away with it.
And I fear the team’s coaches – and I, almost alone among commentators, always use the plural and not the singular Peter de Villiers – may have got it wrong again with the bench they have named for the King’s Park Test.
Why on earth drop Ryan Kankowski from the reserves and replace him with Andries Bekker? The team already possesses the best lock combination in world rugby in Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha and in Danie Rossouw they have the best lock substitute on the globe – in fact Rossouw would walk into the current All Black side.
So why would you need another lock? Kankowski, to my mind, would have been the ideal man to come in and lift the pace, rather than allow it to flag, in the period that the Boks have shown themselves to be vulnerable.
So… in this new world of online predictions it is my contention the Boks will not win this one. I sincerely hope I am wrong but my head tells me the All Blacks will play the more robust second half and will rain on John, Jean and Bryan’s parade.
Guru says:
Jul 31, 2009
I strongly agree with the issue of replacing Bekker with Kanko but ceryainly not the final result. I know Dan is a professional reporter and we are just RUgby addicts who do this part time but I do not understand his logic on why the boks will lose. I just think that man for man, the boks cannopt lose this test and the last thing missing in the bok team is passion and fitness. I would dare say that the boks win win by a larger margin than last week’s mine points. I have out my head on the block.
Guru says:
Jul 31, 2009
Sorry, that was meant to be “last week’s NINE points.
Manny says:
Jul 31, 2009
You know Guru, after watching last weeks game and all the missed kicks by Ruan, the logical conclusion to draw would be that the Boks are going to wallop the AB’s this weekend.
But consider that the AB’s have had more time to prepare compared to last week and aren’t fresh off of a plane; and now they know first hand what the Boks have to offer. This should make the first half a lot tighter than the first test. Given also that if it is raining we are likely to see less tries and points coming mostly from the boot then again, this means the scoreline should be a lot closer. If, as Dan says, the Boks fade in the third quarter then this means the Boks may hand the lead to the All Blacks; and in the final 20 minutes the respective strengths of the benches comes into the equation. To me the bench is where the Boks are vulnerable. In another post I asked the question of what will happen if Steyn gets injured or just has a bad game? There is no replacement at 10 except for Frans Steyn, and I think we can all agree, Bok fans included, that Frans cannot play fly-half! What more if Fourie du Preez has to come off we may see a Ricky Januarie to Frans Steyn combo!!!!
It should be a Bok win but there is room for a surprise result in this game, the Boks, although favorites, should not be over confident of a win.