Why the Lions will beat the Boks
Posted by | Posted in The Lions Tour | Posted on 09-06-2009
Even though I am backing the Lions to win the series I have noticed that they have two big weaknesses which are somewhat related.
First they are very susceptible to the counter attack. Secondly they do not have a decent fetcher and as such dont get much turnover ball and cant prevent the opposition from stealing their own ball.
However, PdV made a blunder by picking Schalk Burger as his only fetcher!! And he didnt have the greatest season with the Stormers! This means the only gap to exploit for the Boks (counter attack) is nullified by not having someone to turnover the ball!
On the other hand the Boks have three big weaknesses. No full back, an inexperienced fly-half and Smit at tighthead. Expect O’Gara and Jones to test whomever plays at the back with high balls and kicks into space. Expect the Lions fly-halves, Ferris and Powell to attack that 10 channel on both offense and defense. Expect Sheridan to make mincemeat of Smit at scrum-time.
3 Bok weaknesses. 3 ways to exploit them. 2-1 to the Lions!

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And don’t forget the battle in midfield Manny which I think the Lions have a slight upper hand against the Boks!!
Right ladies….
lets not get ahead of ourselves here, weakness no.1 in the fullback, i do believe that if young boy wonder Frans has to field any high balls from the pasty lions backs he may just decide to slot a couple drop goals from his own 22, or alternatively heave it back for a lions defensive line-out on their own 5m line. He without doubt has the biggest boot in world rugby bar none.
2nd “weakness” in the fly half region - if peinaar plays he may take some time to get up to speed, but not much time and once there those old farts from the north will truely know what a sidestep is…. and if he is battling slightly we will just have to bring on the top performing flyhalf of the super 14. (very weak player there!!)
3rd. John smit will be made mince-meat!?!?!?!? ha ha ha ha come now lads, Johny boy is hardly a lamb to the slaughter…..and i will put money down that the he will pull off his lamb outfit to reveal the wolf underneath…..
but then again thats all just my opinion……do we care to go double or quits on the beers you all owe me!?!?!?!?
I have not forgotten about your beers Fraz!!
With regards to the fullback, we are assuming that Frans will be fit and ready to play. I am sure Manny is doubting the fullback position in the instance that Frans is injured and then you have JP or Earl at the back, then it will be a disaster for the Bok.
Ruan is also not fully fit and in my eyes Morne should be starting at 10 even if Ruan was fully fit. Then again, we have never seen Morne in a Bok jersey so he may crumble under the pressure.
As for John Smit, it is a pity that Sheridan is not starting for the Lions as he would have had Smit!!!
frans is still likely to be injured from what i’ve read, so you’re looking at an inexperienced fullback for the first test at least. the same goes for ruan at 10, he wont be fit for the first test, and therefore you’re likely to get steyn there. which would be great if he was playing with his bulls mates, but i dont know if he’ll be able to repeat his super 14 performances.
john smit at tighthead with no recognized backup is a gamble at best, i think pdv is smoking some lekke zol there coz he cant be serious, its not super14 level or some halfbaked international side, its the lions and they’ll test him more than he’s been tested to date.
burger is also a bit of a shock selection, while i agree the guys a machine and hard to leave him out based on reputation, but on current form there are loads better flanks in SA….
if pdv is going to use the ‘we know what we get from kirchner and terblanche’ route, then we also know what we get from burger, so why not select someone new there as well..!?
if earl plays it’ll be a sinking ship….im sorry but his 5secs of brilliance is out done by 79min 55secs of stupidity
Well lads all good points and if the injuries are still there then we are looking at JP at fullback….if rose is selected i will willingly go and support canada until that is changed!!! but with JP there although not fully tested at fullback, and although kirchner and terblanche would have been better bets, i do have faith in the man and am not worried.
NOw you okes are talking like the lions are some immense force more worrying than any team on the planet?!?!!? They should have lost against a half notch team in their 1st game, and they near lost to the cheetahs?!!?!? I mean okes…. lts be serious.
Are you really comparing the boks and the cheetahs?!!??!
Fraz, the Lions teams we have seen play thus far have been very disjointed with a lot of new combinations. I think we can only judge the Lions after tomorrows game against the Sharks as they are starting with what is probably their best 15.
no one is saying the lions are some mammoth size…but the boks could definitely increase they’re chances of winning by choosing more capable players in certain areas.
i dont rate the lions loosies to be honest, heaslip aside, the rest are pretty average and i think these days you need to front up in that department.
they still have to see what is their best tight 5 as well, all of them very capable depending on what combos they choose
the backs i think will be their strength as they’ll show on wednesday night. i think they have the players from 11-15…their 10s arent greatin my opinion, but against a debutant like morne who know’s what’ll happen…
dont know what ruans sidestep is like…just seen him get brushed by the kiwis…thats all…
i Have to agree with fraz, you guys are overreacting, as for the fullback position, it’s steyn’s and i think they said he will be ready for the first test, now Franz is no putz, the man is a huge, now this is a big advantage because, his defence will be immense as a full backs should ( HE has proved this time and time again in the centre) his kicking game in terms of distance gained is excellent and thats what you need to play the territory game. His attacking game is sublime and give him space and a head of steam and he can be devastating. Please note he IS NOT in the mould of a mils in that slipperyness but the man has been used as a battering ram the whole of the s14 and he will gain you the hard hards. so he really is not that weak.
Fly-half, Morne to start. Gents he is a Proffessional and as such he has proved time and again that he has the BMT, why are we still doubting him, wasn’t that a big part of his selection criterion i mean could he handle that deer in headlights moment. again his kicking game is immense and i see none of you are arguing on that.
Lastly, the scrum is not everything in a rugby game gents, as proved in the last lions tour to south Africa, the lions won it even though they lost the possession game including scrummiing (yes including scrumming i said it). John smit will get the job done, he may get his ass handed to him in the scrum but in the loose john’s defence has been immense all season and don’t expect any less for the spring boks.
Schalk!!!! Manny are you serious to question schalk, to me schalk is the equivalent to goerge smith and mccaw wether they are performing or not you put them on the field becoz they will always come up with the big play that inspires the team. Lets not be naive here gentlemen the man is not a weakness for the boks and has never been that. stop trying to create fiction here.
We are waxing lyrical about the Lions but they have not tasted any pressure whatso ever in this tour thus fur, i mean the boks attacking defence is rated the best bar none in the world right now, none of the lions fly-halves, O’Gara or that other fellow can’t remember his name at the moment have had a lick of pressure on them off the scrums and in the loose. It has been proven time and again on the southern hemispere teams end of year tours that both these guys cannot, i repeat, CANNOT perform under the pressure. Now with the speed of Spies and the animalism of Schalk coming at you off the side of the scrum these guys arn’t going to have any time and space to play their game, and on the inside you have the BEST BLINDSIDE FLANKER in Jaun in the game today to cover that inside pass they both so love playing. if i were a lions selector i would play james hook starting.
Shane williams is also playing like a putz right now and has been for the past season and yet you continue to start him. It might be wiser to play Ugo Monye. Just a suggestion.
BP this paragraph is for you. Again none of the S.A teams thus far have placed any concentrated pressure on the lions backline (especially the centres) and that roberts character will crack. you heard it gents. ROBERTS WILL CRACK !!!
Honestly speaking, i don’t think the lions forwards are upto crack and if you step up the game they will lag, i don’t think many of you guys are taking into account the effect the ELVS hacve had on Southern hemisphere rugby as a whole, It is a proven fact that it has made rugby players in this hemisphere a lot fitter especially forwards in that the game is played at a much faster pace and the kicking game has made the forwards have to cover a lot more ground. That gents is a huge advantage. I will also concede that they are some disadvantages to this in that it allows for fatigue to set in a hell of a lot quicker ( But again not this early in the season, you will probably see it happening at the end of year tours. )
my call gents is that we might see the Lions take the first game but i think the boks will come from behind to win it 2-1.
please forgive my mistakes was writing that last post in a fit of passion.
Finally someone that knows what they talking about on this site!!
Good man Kambas!!
Well spoken Kambas and I could feel you passion and rage as I read your comment. One thing I would like to point out is that we all know Morne Steyn is the best number 10 is South Africa rugby rugby now (Second in the world to Matt Giteau) but PDV is NOT going to start him for the Boks. Ruan is a certainty to start and PDV himself has said that. Lets not forget Ruan is the Tiger Woods of rugby in PDV’s eyes (What a load of rubbish!!!)
I think we can read more into how the Lions will do after tonights game even if it is against a weak Sharks team.
No stress Kambas and Fraz, I can see that our good friends Ron and Manny seem to be delusional about the capabilities of the men from the north. I agree that the boks do not have their best players in the best form and all ready for battle but the injury concerns and the selection issues that the Boks face are nothing compared to the sheer lack of equal talent in the Lions camp. Yes, the Lions have their best players available and ready to do battle but if truth be told, they are just not in the same class as die bokke!!!!!!!!!! The Lions probably will do well vs the Sharks, Western Province and even the enrging Boks, but when they face the Boks, it’s a different level all together. And how dare you question Schalk? That’s just obscene. It’s like me saying because Liam Messame, Tenerau Latimar, Victor Vito,Sione Lauaki and Jerome Kaino had a better S14 than Richie, then the AB’s should drop McCaw. Come now gents, some players would have to be on one leg and high before you drop them from the team. Watch Burger destroy both Croft and Ferris come June 20th.
All this talk reminds me of 1997. The Bok supporters were saying the exact same things Fraz, Kambas and Guru are saying now…and look what happened. Over confidence could be the biggest enemy of the Boks.
Fraz, Kambas and Guru…I can also feel the passion in you gents rising to the fore! To address some of the numerous points raised by the Bok fans…
I do think that Frans is the best 15 in SA. If, and its an IF he plays, thats a bonus for SA in comparison to Earl Rose. I will acknowledge that he has a big boot. The whole world knows this. So dont expect O’Gara/Jones to simply nudge the ball straight into his arms and try play gaining ground cos they know they will lose. Instead watch them try to exploit his positional naivety. It doesnt matter how big your boot is if the fly-half keeps placing the ball a good 20/30 metres either side of you….or in front or behind you. This allows the rest of the opposition to put pressure on the full-back which results in a poor kick or an attempt at running it back. Frans has been playing S14 at Fly-half and centre, not full-back. Dont discount the effect the positional change will have on his game.
If Rose plays at full-back then I think we can all agree that he represents a weak link in the Bok chain without me getting into too much detail!
As for 10, Morne is the best fly-half in the country. But as Ron said, he is not going to start. Its Ruan. And where was Ruan when Morne outplayed him in the S14 showdown? The man was invisible! So why would he miraculously become such a magnificent fly-half when he plays against the Lions? Not forgetting that if he does play he will be fresh back from an injury and so will be ring rusty. As BP said, I didnt see much side-stepping from Ruan during the S14. Maybe he did so against the Auto General Lions and Mr Rose?
If Morne plays the only thing we can say is that he is untested at this level. To debut against the Lions will be a nerve-wracking experience, and pressure does things to even the best players (ask the All Blacks about pressure and the World Cup!)
Kambas has acknowledged that come scrum time Mr Smit will have “his ass handed to him”. Lets not gloss over the fact that he’s playing out of position against one of the best scrummers in the world (Sheridan). I didnt mention anything about loose play in my post and maybe Kambas is right that in the loose Smit may outplay Sheridan. But if the Boks are upset at scrum-time, and you combine that with what I think is a problem area at 10, all of a sudden the Boks will be on a serious backfoot! Can they win without first phase ball and without a fly-half?
like i said in my previous post, the backs is where the lions strength will be. if john smit is to be handed his a$$ on a platter as kambas says, then that immediately gives the lions backs an advantage at scrum time, surely? its a pity that the lions wont have a savage open side to terrorize ruan/morne, as mentioned above, i dont rate the lions loosies.
frans steyn at fullback is the best option they have, i reckon he is the man, and as long as he doesnt ever stand at 10, 12 or 13, then he should be effective as he wont have to pass, not that he does anyway. it’ll be very sad to see him trying drops goals frmo his 10m line in the first 5mins, ive got money on the fact he will…t0sser!
i think roberts will be a lot better with BOD playing along side him. BOD has been tested and shown a lot of credentials mate, to say that the lions backs are not all they cracked up to be. even shane williams on a bad day is better than most other wings, as current world player of the year….ugo is showing devistating form and i think it will be interesting match up.
i think both sides are building eachother up more than need be before anything has happened. the bulls winning the s14 is a different kettle of fish to a lions test, as is the irish winning the 6nations, so as ron says, not much can be made of this whole thing til at least after tonight, and more likely until after the first test.
injuries and stupid refs aside, its gonna be a cracker….
At the end of the day BP thats all we want to see, three cracking tests of rugby!
And I agree with you on the part about an openside flanker, or lack thereof, BP. I’m very keen to see how Wallace plays against the Sharks though. He needs to stand up and be counted. I do however rate Ferris highly, although that has been rendered a moot point by his injury so my eye will be on Messrs Croft and Heaslip in the run up to the first test.
It would be rather sad if after all this hype and build up the series ended in a one sided 3 nil whitewash to either squad!
So be prepared for majoy disappointment Manny. The only reason why there is so much hype is the fact that this tour is a once in 12 years affair. Other than that, the boks will blow the Lions out of the water. As a bok supporter i may be overconfident but the bok players themselves will not be. And if the boks play to 80% of their potential, this will be a whitewash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I love this article! I found the story when released to be the biggest joke I had ever heard. I got a good laugh and moved on. Thanks for showing that I could laugh again at the story.